Climate change threats to cultural and natural heritage UNESCO sites in the Mediterranean

Abstract The study presents a time-dependent analysis of threats from man-made climate change at 244 UNESCO cultural and natural heritage sites in the Mediterranean. hazards our research are estimated by indices based on extremes heat, fire weather conditions, heavy rainfall days, frost changes mean sea level aridity each site. These were calculated regional EUROCORDEX simulations, cover period 1971–2100 refer to two IPCC emission scenarios, namely RCP4.5 RCP8.5. A combined threat index was next calculated, as explained text, together with its synergy local exposure geophysical threats, such seismicity, topography proximity forests seas. All related show an overall increasing trend present end twenty-first century. Some these trends intensified after 2030s 2040s, except for case days frost. As global warming evolves, both scenarios studied, majority studied increases. Notable is amplification vulnerable seismic activity other or characteristics. Our conclusion that Mediterranean rate extreme events. Seismic magnifying only which additional hazard applies. Based proposed index, worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) 35 monument fall within “high hazard” 12 under category “extreme hazard”.